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The Kentucky Derby takes place every year on the first Saturday in May, and its a race that many horse racing novices like to follow. Along with the Breeders’ Cup and the other ‘Triple Crown’ races, the Derby attracts the most mainstream attention. Understanding the intricacies of horse racing is a very involved study.

Despite the complexity of understanding horse racing, there are a few basic rules that can help the novice watch the Kentucky Derby with a greater degree of enjoyment. Until recently, the Derby was a race dominated by the favorite. In the 1970’s great horses like Secretariat and Seattle Slew blew away the field but since Spectacular Bid’s winning run in 1979 there have been only a couple of favorites to win the big race. While a serious horse player might not want to categorically dismiss the popular favorite, for the horse racing novice this is a helpful way to narrow down the field.

So why has the favorite done so poorly in recent years? One theory suggests that it is a by-product of the hype surrounding the race. Novice horse fans back the favorite, making it more of a popularity contest than anything else. The reality is that the horse with the most hype is not always the best horse.

Don’t forget to pay attention to the starting position of the horses, known as ‘post position’ in racing slang. The historical data suggests that a Derby winner is most likely to come from positions 1 through 5, while the outer positions (11 through 20) have produced relatively few winners. This is something of an over simplification, but for the purpose of understanding a single race it won’t hurt to just rule out all horses starting in a bad position.

Another factor worthy of consideration is the horses lineage and breeding. Start at the beginning”where the horse was born. Most, but not all, serious racehorses are born in Kentucky. If you see a horse in the race that wasnt, forget them. This is not any sort of home field advantage but a result of the concentration of the Thoroughbred horse industry in the state. Over 80% of Kentucky Derby winners have been born in Kentucky. Next, consider the horses gender, or more specifically dont consider any entry with a gender other than male. Only eleven horses other than intact males have ever won the race (eight geldings and three fillies). A gelding did win as recently as 2003, when Funny Cide took the roses but again for the newcomer this is an easy way to cut down the horses under consideration. This isnt a gender bias or anything, but for our purposes we can forget about non-male horses.

Dosage index numbers have also taken on a great deal of significance in recent years. What are dosage numbers you ask? I have no clue, beyond the fact that theyre a complex mathematical measurement that reflects the quality of the horses family tree, as well as his performance as a two-year-old. The conventional wisdom is that horses with a dosage index over 4.00 are not supposed to be competitive at the long 1 mile distance. This isnt always the case, of course, but for the dilettante its a good factor to consider. Since 1984 (when dosage systems first came into vogue), the winners of nine Derby races were dosage system selections.

These are just a few steps that will serve you well if you dont know much about horses. Again, if you want to take a more serious approach to understanding horse racing you should look into the many books dedicated to the subject. For a recreational horse race enthusiast, however, these basic rules are helpful in trying to predict the Derby winner.

Ross Everett is a widely published widely published freelance sports writer and respected authority on World Cup betting. His writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sports news and sportsbook directory sites. He lives in Las Vegas with three Jack Russell Terriers and a kangaroo. He is currently working on an autobiography of former interior secretary James Watt.

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